No matter how much planning we do in fantasy football, a lot still comes down to… LUCK. Injuries, contract holdouts, trades, and poor performances affect every team.
For these 2026 season “Luck” rankings, I am focusing on scheduling: how each team’s actual record compares with its weekly scoring performance against the rest of the league. The rankings group teams into three categories:
· Lucky Teams: More wins than their all-play performance suggests.
· Neutral Teams: You are what your record says you are—results broadly match all-play performance.
· Bad Luck Teams: Fewer wins than their all-play performance suggests.
How Scheduling Luck Is Measured
The comparison uses actual results and all-play results to show how scheduling has affected each team’s record. Here is how to read the measures:
· Actual Win %: The team’s current winning percentage in scheduled matchups.
· All Play Win %: The winning percentage a team would have if it played every other team each week, using actual weekly scores. For example, Milford Football Team ranked fifth in scoring in Week 3. It outscored five teams and scored fewer points than four, giving it an all-play record of 5-4 for that week.
· Variance: Actual Win % minus All Play Win %. A positive value indicates more favorable scheduling results; a negative value indicates less favorable results.
· Actual Wins: The team’s real win total in scheduled matchups.
· Expected Wins: All Play Win % × number of games played, using the percentage as a decimal. This converts all-play performance into an expected win total over the actual schedule.
· +/- win: Actual Wins minus Expected Wins. Positive values mean more wins than expected; negative values mean fewer.
What the Rankings Show
Flanders: The Luckiest Team
Flanders and Stick Rock stand out as the league’s luckiest team so far this season. Flanders actual winning percentage is .714, while comparing its weekly point totals with the rest of the league produces an all-play percentage of .492—below .500. By this scheduling-based measure, Flanders has roughly two more wins than its scoring performance would suggest. Stick Rock is undefeated, but according to the all-play results, their record should be 5-2.
Four Teams on the Unlucky Side
MKBA, Skoal Bandits, JST, and Dark Helmet have each played well enough to have roughly one additional win based on their all-play performance. That puts them on the unlucky side of the comparison, although none has been truly unlucky this season.
