Two weeks are in the books, which means it is time for some early overreactions to the fantasy season. We analyze the draft as soon as the final pick is made, but once the games begin, draft-day performance is quickly forgotten. To track how those decisions hold up, I keep a spreadsheet showing the points scored by every player at each draft position throughout the season. This week, we will look at the season-to-date performance (through Week 2) of players selected in Rounds 1–5. Future newsletters will cover Rounds 6–10 and Rounds 11–16.
Scoring by Rounds
Rounds 1-5: 1,857.28
Rounds 6-10: 1,064.70
Rounds 11-16: 1,038.40
Before getting to Rounds 1–5, one result from the data surprised me. As expected, players drafted in the early rounds—including keepers—have scored the most points (1,857). What I did not expect was how little separated players selected in Rounds 6–10, who scored 1,064 points, from those selected in Rounds 11–16, who scored 1,038. The final group includes one additional round, but it also consists largely of late-round flyers, lottery tickets and defenses, making the narrow gap especially notable.
For anyone interested, I have all this data that gets dumped into an excel spreadsheet. I can use pivot tables to easily configure the information in any way you would like to see it. If there is something you would be interested in seeing, (positional breakouts/free agent performance) drop me a note in the comments section below and I will include the information in an upcoming newsletter.
Draft-Day Assumptions Under Review
Draft-day ideas that looked better at the time:
Drake Maye’s 2025 season was probably due to a soft schedule.When a player’s name is closely associated with the “Blue Tent,” drafting him in the first five rounds is probably too risky. (Jaxson Dart)
If your quarterback’s most notable achievement is having the “Pantalones de Sissy” award named after him, selecting him in the third round may have been a reach. (Caleb Williams)
If your wide receiver spent the offseason dealing with legal trouble and has struggled to stay on the field in the past, he probably should not be your No. 1 keeper. (Puka Nacua)
Colston Loveland is not making the leap to TE1.
With those early lessons in mind, I will review the 2026 draft for sleepers, steals, and busts over the next three newsletters. This week begins with a team-by-team look at Rounds 1–5, including the points scored by each team’s first five picks.
Rounds 1–5: Team-by-Team Review
It is no coincidence that the three teams with the most points scored this season are also had the most points scored by players selected in Rounds 1-5 (including Keepers).
Steals:
Stick Rock drafting Brock Purdy in the 5th round.
MKBA Drafting Breece Hall in the 5th round.
Springfield Flanders making the bold decision to keep Chris Olave and selecting D’Andre Swift in the 5th Round.
Peeping Tomlins for believing age is just a number and selecting Patrick Mahomes in the 4th round.
Sleepers:
Ghostbusters selected Caleb Williams in the 3rd round. If he mans-up, he could be a top 5 QB
Skoal Bandits drafting Nico Collins and Zay Flowers. Both got off to quick starts then both missed game 2 because of injury. If they can stay healthy, it would be a formidable 1-2 punch at the WR spot.
John’s Scary Team selecting Cam Skattebo in the 5th round. He looks fully recovered from last year’s ankle injury. He just needs to find the end zone more often,
Busts:
Flanders keeping Brock Bowers despite a deep TE field. He missed the first two games of the season due to a knee injury that is a carryover from last season
Skoal Bandits thought they solved their QB issue by keeping Drake Maye from last year’s playoff team, but he is off to a dreadful start in 2026.
Wrath of Kahn was hoping Drake London had a breakthrough season last year, but it doesn’t matter if he does not have a QB to throw to him. This pick is dependent on Michael Pennix staying healthy. 1
Dark Helmet traded the Saquon Barkley headache to the Ghostbusters. Is this a matter of Helmet recovering value on a sunk cost or are the Ghostbusters buying low on a top 10 RB?
Milford Football Team might be realizing what the rest of us have known after 2 seasons. The Rashee Rice breakout in KC is not going to happen.
Thats it for now. Rounds 6-10 will be published Friday, October 1st and rounds 11-16 will follow on Friday, October 8th.
As always,
KNICKS IN FIVE!
This was written Tuesday, 2 days before London went crazy on Thursday Night.